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Bear market or Bull Market?

March 2016

Big picture thinking:

SPY
We are finding ourselves at a critical junction in stocks. I see a bear market in the manner that stocks were moving in the past eight months. The intra-day and week moves we have seen since last summer are typical of long term topping action. Internal and economic signs also pointed at a turn down. However, last week the wedge formation, a major resistance level and the 61.8% Fib level on SPY were violated. Technically this is significant. Why did this happen? More fuel has been thrown on the fire in the form of ECB stimulus. Together with stimulus packages in China and Japan this is pushing stocks back up and providing psychological support for investors to re-establish long positions. Are they going to profit or get very hurt? The downside moves much faster than the upside, except for bear market rallies which can be virulent.

The question is now whether the market can continue up and post new highs that will stick and turn into yet another...

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